I read an interestingly funny article on the WSJ.com website. At the time it was the most read article on the WSJ.com site. With all the economic problems we’ve had in 2008 it doesn’t seem like things could get better, right? According to some Russian professor (Igor Panarin) it wont get better. His predictions for America are dire, borderline apocalyptic. I know nothing in depth about economics but this professor’s predictions seem, to me, to be a little too extreme. His soothsaying thesis states that by the year 2010, about one year or year and a half from now, the U.S. will disintegrate. How?
“Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces…” (WSJ.com)
As one can imagine, this prediction seems to be very unlikely. I think it’s pretty humorous that he has set down a specific month when the U.S. will “break away.” He’s getting a lot of attention in Russia for his theory and the attention is coming from those who are anti-American. Many level-minded people believe otherwise.
“…Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. ‘Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,” says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin’s theories don’t hold water.’” (WSJ.com)
Remember he (Panarin) said that the U.S. would disintegrate into “six pieces.” What would those six pieces be? This is where his predictions become really wild. First, Alaska. He feels Alaska would go under Russian influence/control.
“‘It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.’
‘It’s not there for no reason,’ he (Panarin) says with a sly grin.” (WSJ.com)
Next is Hawaii. He thinks it will go to either under Japanese or Chinese influence/control. California will break off from the union along with Washington state, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Those states will form the “Californian Republic” which he thinks will be under Chinese influence/control. It gets weirder. What he calls the “Texas Republic” which in his mind will be under Mexican influence/control include states like New Mexico, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Florida. The next territory is the “Central-American Republic” and according to him will be under Canadian influence/control. This includes Kansas, Illinois, Ohio, all the way back to Montana. Finally, what he calls “Atlantic America,” he believes may join the European Union. It includes the original 13 (minus Georgia) along with Kentucky and Tennessee. I would like to know why he set up the dividing lines the way he did, it doesn’t seem to be too well thought out.
The question that should be in the heads of many is, “How does he know this? What concrete information does he have to support his theory? Where is this information?”
“He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.” (WSJ.com)
It sounds good but he really has nothing. He just did a calculus problem without showing his work. Many’s responses to this on the site were questioning why the Wall Street Journal would publish drivel like this? I don’t know, perhaps to be humorous because no one known in America or American economics seems to take this man’s predictions seriously nor even give it a glance. Or, the WSJ wanted to get this theory out in the open for American opinion. Either way things don’t look that bad and I think Panarin just doesn’t like America. The only people taking his theory seriously are those Anti-Americans in Russia. I would also guess that some in Cuba and North Korea would be interested in hearing this theory as well. It’s just a guess.
Panarin’s Résumé
In case you were wondering.
I hope the article got a laugh. My favorite is the map and his idea that the U.S. will be divided into six regions. Wishful thinking for Panarin, though there’s always that 0.0000001% chance of “what if.” I don’t think he’s the Emmanuel Todd he wants to be or think he might be.
Posted by Adam 
