The BCS is Wrong…Still!

That’s right another fellow blogger ranting about the BCS and bowl system. The BCS did put Florida into the national championship game, I am very happy that I’m going to see my current and childhood team in the national championship game for the second time in three years, but that will not change the fact that the BCS is not right. Two teams that got left out are Texas Tech and Boise State. I find it inexplicable and inexcusable to leave at least one of the two teams out of the “big money” BCS games. Boise State won their conference (Western Athletic) and are a perfect 12-0, what more does the BCS want from them? Texas Tech can pass circles around nearly anybody they finished 3rd in the best conference/division in the nation this year with an 11-1 record, however they could have done more by beating OU. So I can understand leaving them out. Yet somehow and someway the BCS opts to put in a brand name team to play Texas. Ya’ll knew this was coming. Ohio State did not win their conference, which was like last year below par for the Big Ten, and they have two losses and one really good win against Michigan State. They are also ranked 10th in the BCS’s standings while both Texas Tech (#6) and Boise State (#9) are ranked ahead of them and are snubbed. Why? I don’t know, maybe Ohio State v. Texas would pull in more $$$ than a Boise State v. Texas match-up. Like I said before either Tech or Boise State would have to be left out and if it were up to me it would have to be Tech. Boise State, you really can’t ask them to do anything more than what they’ve done to this point, they deserve it. If the BCS wanted a brand name to play Texas why not put in Georgia? They’re ranked below Tech and Boise State too. Or better yet, get rid of Utah and replace them with Michigan State or Georgia. How does a top ten team (who are perfect) in the BCS standings with the BCS’s own computations and regulations, get left out of a BCS bowl game?

The long series of events that lead to the touchdown that sealed the fate for the Tide!

The Numbers

The BCS is still subjective because the 6 computer polls, the polls that are supposed to be “objective” polls, only account for one third of the BCS average. The USA Today and Harris Polls get two thirds, each a third to themselves. So why did the BCS seem to get it right this year? Because the human voters placed OU and Florida 1 and 2, and it didn’t really matter what the computers thought because of the heavy weight the voters have in the BCS system. In the final BCS standings, Florida is ranked first in the Harris poll by a pretty substantial margin (.983) and ranked second in the USA Today poll (.971). OU is ranked second in the Harris poll (.955) and first in the USA Today poll (.972). There you have two separate very high rankings from human opinion. Now the computers have OU unanimously #1, computer average of 1.000, while Florida is third with a computer average of .890. Billingsley is the only computer who have the Gators second, all others have them anywhere from third to sixth. I’ve tried playing around with some numbers to see what would happen if they (the BCS) combined all of the human polls (AP, USA Today, and Harris) and did a “Human Average.” How would the top three come out? My hypothesis, Florida and Texas will switch positions. The combined total points for all three human polls I believe is 5,975 points (1,625 AP, 1,525 USA Today, 2,825 Harris).

BCS as it is now

Team	USA Today	Harris	Computer Average	BCS
Oklahoma	0.9718	0.9554	1.0000	0.9757
Florida	0.9711	0.9827	0.8900	0.9479
Texas	0.9233	0.9260	0.9400	0.9298

Texas and Florida here are separated by one hundred and eighty two hundredths (0.0182) of a point, pretty close by BCS standards.

BCS w/Human Average (AP, USA Today, and Harris)

Team	Human Average	Computer Average	BCS
Oklahoma	0.9575	1.0000	0.9787
Florida	0.9806	0.8900	0.9353
Texas	0.9295	0.9400	0.9348

Florida barely scrapes in by five ten thousandths (0.0005) of a point! Razor thin close. I thought there would be a switch of position between Florida and Texas here but not quite. This would make a lot of Texas people angry they’re only 0.0005 points away from being in the NC game. Florida is the only team to lose BCS points this way, both Texas and OU gain BCS points. Now if we were to do it like the BCS and drop the AP voters, the total comes out to 4,350 points and the table looks like the one below.

BCS w/Human Average (USA Today and Harris)

Team	Human Average	Computer Average	BCS
Oklahoma	0.9611	1.0000	0.9806
Florida	0.9786	0.8900	0.9343
Texas	0.9251	0.9400	0.9325

This time Texas is eighteen thousandths (0.0018) of a point behind Florida, still ridiculously close. I was trying to show that if the human voters were consolidated into one average and each of the human and computer averages have equal 50/50 weight, and not 2/3, that there would be some difference and perhaps a switch between Florida and Texas. There is a difference, the margin between Texas and Florida shrinks but there is no switch. Why am I pointing this out? It sounds like I’m trying to make a case against Florida, why would I do that? I’m not trying to make a case against Florida, I’m was trying to point out how much say the human voters have in who gets into the national title game. There was some talk last weekend of how Florida could get snubbed because their computer rankings the previous week were so low. The humans fixed that because of their two-thirds say. The BCS really doesn’t seem all that different from the way things were before the BCS except now we have added computers and rating systems to say that it isn’t the same and that the BCS isn’t entirely subjective…it’s just 2/3 subjective. Human opinion and computer systems should not be involved in determining what two teams get to play one game for any championship period! I’m not buying the whole idea that the regular season is like one big playoff crap. If the lesser divisions can settle it on the field through a playoff, what’s up with division I-A? ($$$) No matter how many times the BCS calculation is tweaked, it’ll never be the right way to determine a champion.

Not much to show in the OU-Missouri game, it wasn’t very competitive. OU won 62-21.

Why don’t I like the bowl system? Because of the way money and companies are involved with conferences. Some match-ups will never happen unless it’s in the championship game. As a Florida fan, there has been one team in recent years that I’ve been dying to see Florida play, and that’s USC. This match-up will NEVER happen in the current bowl format unless it’s in the national title game or somehow they manage to arrange a meeting during the regular season. If USC wins the Pac-10 but aren’t ranked 1 or 2 in the BCS then they’re going to the Rose Bowl automatically. Traditionally, who else plays in the Rose Bowl if they aren’t ranked 1 or 2 in the BCS? The Big Ten champions. Traditions are great and all, but this is one that can and needs to be destroyed, as well as all others that fix certain conference champions to a certain bowl. As far as I’ve read, Florida has played USC twice, once in 1982 and again in 1983 both times were before I was born!!! Florida won one 17-9 and they drew the other 19-19. I think they need to play again (I want them to play again), but who knows when that’ll be and how good will the two teams be then?

My Answer

I think a playoff is the answer to settle these issues I have, but in reality, it may never happen. So just like last year I present to you my “fantasy college football playoff bracket.” The number in the far left is the seed and the number in parenthesis is the team’s current AP rank.

First Round

#1		(2) Oklahoma Sooners (Big XII Champions) 12-1 [7-1]
#16		Buffalo Bulls (Mid-American Champions) 8-5 [5-3]

at Norman, Oklahoma

#8		(6) Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten Champions) 11-1 [7-1]
#9		(8) Texas Tech Red Raiders (At Large) 11-1 [7-1]

at State College, Pennsylvania

#4		(4) Alabama Crimson Tide (At Large) 12-1 [8-0]
#13		(12) Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East Champions) 11-2 [6-1]

at Tuscaloosa, Alabama

#5		(9) Boise State Broncos (WAC Champions) 12-0 [8-0]
#12		(21) Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC Champions) 9-4 [5-3]

at Boise, Idaho

#6		(7) Utah Utes (Mountain West Champions) 12-0 [8-0]
#11		(10) Ohio State Buckeyes (At Large) 10-2 [7-1]

at Salt Lake City, Utah

#3		(5) USC Trojans (Pac-10 Champions) 11-1 [8-1]
#14		Troy Trojans (Sun Belt Champions) 8-4 [6-1]

at Los Angeles, California

#7		(3) Texas Longhorns (At Large) 11-1 [7-1]
#10		(11) TCU Horned Frogs (At Large) 10-2 [7-1]

at Austin, Texas

#2		(1) Florida Gators (SEC Champions) 12-1 [7-1]
#15		East Carolina Pirates (C-USA Champions) 9-4 [6-2]

at Gainesville, Florida

Taking a page from college basketball, all conference champions will play excluding the independents with five at large bids. Now I know Buffalo, Troy, nor East Carolina are top 16 teams in the nation, but they won their conference. To me this makes the most sense instead of having a four or eight team playoff (though I would gladly accept any kind of playoff right now). It doesn’t matter how “bad” the conference is, why not reward conference champions for winning their conference? It’s not easy winning a conference championship. The at large bids are for those teams who didn’t win their conference but are just too good to leave out (i.e. Alabama, TCU, Ohio State, Texas, and Texas Tech). There would be four possible extra games vs. the one with the bowl format we have now, which would still be kept for the other teams who failed to win their conference such as Ball State–so close, Tulsa, Georgia, Missouri, etc. The first round and quarterfinal games would be played at the higher seed’s home field, the semifinal and championship games would be played at neutral sites.

I showed some restraint by not placing Florida at #1. I do think they are the underdogs going into the NC game against OU.

In closing, I’ll never be happy with the BCS, ever.

Go Gators! Go Hawks!